Estonian Academic Agricultural SocietyAgraarteadus1024-084523220121220
Using modelling to analyse options for safeguarding food self-sufficiency in Estonia.
Eesti toiduainetega isevarustamise võimaluste modelleerimine.
3644ETReetPõldaru
Estonian University of Life Science, Fr.R. Kreutzwaldi 1, 51014 Tartu, Estonia. reet.poldaru@emu.ee
JüriRoots
Estonian University of Life Science, Fr.R. Kreutzwaldi 1, 51014 Tartu, Estonia
Environmental crises, warfare, trade disruptions and the supply shocks in the global food markets are all potential threats to national food security in developed countries. In order to cope with various crisis scenarios sufficient domestic food production capacity is particularly important. Using the
mathematical programming model of food supply, we investigate the possibility for improving the food selfsufficiency in Estonia. The objective function of the linear programming model is to minimize the sown area of field crops. The problem can be formulated as follows: produce the necessary amount of agricultural commodities, food and feeding stuffs, given the constraints of calories and proteins consumption per day per capita per food item. The Estonia's food supply and demand system accommodates food commodity flows from various supply regions (farms) to final demand sectors (population of Estonia). The model consists of 161 variables and 176 constraints (equations). By using the mathematical programming model, we obtained the following results for the improvement strategies of food self-sufficiency of Estonia. The total optimal sown area of field crops equals to 337.6 thousand ha. There should be 85.4 thousand dairy cows and 387.2 thousand pigs. Numerical results show that Estonia's self-sufficiency could get to 100% if production of domestic products instead of import holds, given the constraints of calories and proteins consumption per day per capita per food item. MS Excel’s Solver was used to solve the model.